1 July, 2026

Budget Impact From the Coalface

Dowling Neylan — Monthly Market Update

I intentionally held off on this report, knowing everyone has been overloaded with information about the federal budget, and I wanted to wait until it had passed through parliament. I'm sure you're sick of reading about it, so I'll keep this shorter than usual.

Impact on the Noosa Property Market

Sales at the top end of the market have slowed significantly. Sales in the mid and lower ranges are still moving well, provided they're priced correctly.
Values at the top end have weakened, possibly by up to 20% — a truth most agents won't reveal or accept. Values in the lower and mid ranges have weakened less, around 10%, based on recent sales.
We don't expect values to weaken further; rather, we expect the market to bump along at this level, as the fundamentals haven't changed and supply remains limited.
This softening has been driven by weaker confidence, which means good buying opportunities for those able to hold for five years or more.
Most investment buyers are waiting for advice from their accountants, who can't really advise clients until the tax briefings on what was passed in parliament are released. The bill also allows the government to make ongoing changes, which leaves buyers unsure exactly what they're dealing with.
The holiday unit market will be impacted the most; residential homes to a lesser extent.
Commercial property that can be positively geared and offers potential for capital growth will become more popular.
Sellers considering holding off for a better outcome should think again — the market needs a catalyst to change. Can you think of one on the horizon? The next major one is the federal election in 2028. Do you want to wait that long, or longer?
Buyers waiting for the market to fall further risk missing good opportunities. Most owners selling in Noosa aren't under pressure, so they'll take less only if they can buy for less.
Building costs are still underpinning value and will continue to do so.
Interstate migration from the Southern states is still in full swing, meaning more people are trying to buy into a market with limited stock.
70% of purchasers in Noosa are buying as their principal place of residence, so their purchase is unaffected by changes in this budget.
Of the remaining 30% who are investors, most aren't primarily investors — it's not their main reason for buying. Many don't negatively gear, many buy for personal use and can afford to do so, and many buy as a short-term rental with a view to move in or redevelop within a few years. True, hardcore investors are a small minority of Noosa buyers.

Our advice to buyers: get back to fundamentals. There's real opportunity here to buy well with less competition. There is no meaningful oversupply in Noosa, so reduced buyer activity has less impact — simple economics when stock is this limited.

Property is a long-term proposition, so buying now, while competition is lower, sets you up for gains later when everyone else moves back into the market. Only last month the big banks announced lower three-year loan rates on the belief that inflation is falling and will continue to fall. As soon as the cash rate stops rising — or is adjusted down — sentiment will shift again.

The Noosa Rental Market: Still Very Tight

The Noosa rental market continues to be highly competitive, with very low vacancy rates and rental prices steadily increasing. A combination of strong demand for the coastal lifestyle, limited housing supply and ongoing population growth is keeping pressure on the market.

Low vacancy rates: availability remains well below the balanced-market range of 2.5%–3.0%, typically sitting between 0.58% and 1%.
Annual rent increases: under Queensland legislation, rent can only be increased once every 12 months. Even so, ongoing housing shortages have contributed to annual rental growth of roughly 5%–15% across the region.
High-demand locations: popular areas such as Noosa continue to see strong rental growth, as home ownership becomes less affordable for many and demand for rentals remains strong.

Overall, the Sunshine Coast remains one of Queensland's most sought-after rental markets, with demand continuing to outpace supply — especially in Noosa. That surprises no one. What is surprising is how little is being done about it from a planning perspective.

Landlords should be aware of the current requirements around when rent can be increased, and the notice period required to end a tenancy and should review tenants' rights under the Act. Contact our property managers for advice on these ongoing changes.

New Anti-Money Laundering Legislation

At Dowling Neylan, we're committed to providing a seamless, transparent and secure experience for every client. We'd like to inform you of important changes to Australian property transactions taking effect from 1 July 2026.

New Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing (AML/CTF) legislation will apply to all real estate agencies across Australia, including Dowling Neylan. These reforms introduce new legal obligations requiring agencies to verify client identity and undertake due diligence before providing certain real estate services. While new to the property industry, these requirements have long been standard practice across banking, finance, accounting and legal services.

Why are these changes being introduced?

The Australian Government has expanded the AML/CTF framework to help protect Australia's financial system and property market by reducing the risk of:

Money laundering and organised crime
Fraud and financial misconduct
Terrorism financing
The misuse of property transactions for unlawful activities

Bringing real estate into the framework forms part of a broader national push to strengthen transparency and integrity across regulated industries.

What does this mean for you?

If you're buying or selling property through Dowling Neylan, we may be required to verify your identity before we can provide certain services. Depending on your circumstances, this may include requesting:

Proof of identity
Confirmation of your residential address
Information relating to companies, trusts or other ownership structures

Where a property is owned or purchased through a company, trust or similar entity, we may also need to identify the individuals who ultimately own or control that entity.

What will the process look like?

Our priority is to make this process as simple, secure and efficient as possible. Most clients will receive a secure digital request to complete identity verification through Pexa Clear, a compliance platform built specifically for the Australian real estate and legal industries.

Once submitted, our team will review the information to satisfy our legal obligations before proceeding with your transaction, so we can keep delivering the premium service you expect from Dowling Neylan. There will be a fee for both buyers and sellers for these searches, usually around $200, depending on the complexity of the ownership entity. Single or dual-person ownership is simpler and lower cost; superannuation funds, trusts and companies attract a higher fee depending on the structure.

Is my information secure?

Absolutely. Protecting your personal information is of the utmost importance to us. Verification information is securely managed through Pexa Clear, an ISO/IEC 27001:2022-certified platform designed to meet rigorous information security and privacy standards. Your information will only be collected and used for AML/CTF compliance purposes and handled in accordance with applicable Australian privacy legislation.

Existing clients

If you've previously bought or sold property through Dowling Neylan, the legislation still requires identity verification checks to be completed for relevant transactions from 1 July 2026 onwards. In many cases, we may simply need to confirm or update the information we already hold.

Budget Impact From the Coalface