19 October, 2026

Well, What Can We Say?

Another interest rate rise has the so-called experts in a tizz about its impact on the property market. But what are we actually seeing here in Noosa?

Some sellers are choosing to downsize to mortgage-free properties, while buyer enquiry at the lower end has slowed as borrowing capacity tightens and concerns about further rate rises grow. More broadly, confidence has been affected, highlighting the importance of understanding local market conditions rather than relying on sweeping national commentary.

Most Noosa sellers are under no pressure to sell and with shrinking motivation, prefer to wait for improved market conditions, setting Noosa apart from other markets. The sellers I speak with generally have a price that allows them to move forward, with flexibility depending on their future plans. Even if the buyer pool is smaller, buyers have less competition and more opportunity to negotiate in isolation. Buyers who walk away from the right property over a relatively small price difference should reconsider. Quality homes are hard to find, building costs are not getting any cheaper and taking a long-term view can reap significant rewards. Sydney and Melbourne have seen significant price falls in some prestige properties. Noosa has experienced some impact, it's undeniable, but not to the same level. Limited supply and continued demand for quality property have provided support. Time on market has increased, and fewer buyers are committing to purchases. However, for those who find the right property at the right price, opportunity remains.

 

Here are two recent examples.

1. The Luxury Market

Consider a $9 million property with $5.5 million in land value, leaving $3.5 million attributable to the home itself. Rebuilding a comparable luxury home would now cost at least $4 million, creating an immediate replacement-value advantage of $500,000. Looking three to four years ahead, I believe the property could potentially reach $11 million, representing a $2 million increase from today's price.

For a buyer with a long-term outlook, that presents an attractive opportunity.

2. The Entry-Level Market

Recently, I helped a young carpenter purchase a unit in Noosa Heads for $875,000. With a new roof required, the effective purchase cost is closer to $900,000. After renovation costs, his total investment will be approximately $1.15 million. I believe the property could achieve around $1.3 million in today's market, fully renovated. His plan is to hold for 36 months, allowing time for improvements to the complex and potentially stronger market confidence following the next federal election. I see a potential sale price of $1.5 million or more. That represents a potential gain of at least $350,000 over three years, or approximately $117,000 annually, before selling costs and other applicable expenses.

 

It is a good example of how buying well, adding value and taking a long-term view can create opportunity, even in an uncertain market.

 

Buyers: Opportunity Favours the Prepared

 

Buyers who are financially prepared should be actively exploring opportunities while current conditions prevail. Quality properties are surfacing and represent excellent opportunities. The key is to buy location, look to improve the property, overcome or solve objections. For buyers borrowing money, waiting to see if prices fall can be very costly for you, if they don't and interest rates rise, your borrowing capacity shrinks.

Those seeking renovators or small projects, now is your time to move. Complete your project over the next 24 months and you will be selling post a federal election, hopefully moving into a market with greater confidence and more buyers moving with the herd into property.

 

Sellers: Focus on the Bigger Picture

 

Sellers need to be realistic about price, but also consider their next move. If you are selling to buy another property, focus on the changeover cost, rather than holding out for a particular sale price.

For example:

• Sell for $2 million and buy for $2.5 million: a $500,000 changeover, plus stamp duty.
• Sell for $1.7 million and buy for $2.2 million: the same $500,000 changeover, with less stamp duty payable on the purchase.

The lower sale price does not necessarily put you at a disadvantage if you can also secure your next property for less. The overall transaction matters more than the headline sale price. The property you buy may have more potential for capital growth than the one you have.

 

Two Final Considerations

 

1. Buy or rent?

At the lower end of the market, people need somewhere to live. For those who can afford to buy, home ownership may offer a more attractive long-term proposition than continuing to rent.

 

2. What is waiting really costing you?

If you are selling, holding out for another $100,000 or $200,000 may make sense, but consider the cost of waiting. How long are you prepared to put your plans on hold for that extra money? Time is something we never get back, and no one knows exactly what the future holds. Selling now may also open the door to buying your next property at a more favourable price. Once you have sold, you can assess your options from a position of greater certainty.

These principles are not new, but they are worth revisiting in changing market conditions. An experienced agent with genuine local knowledge can help you assess the numbers, explore your options and make informed decisions with confidence. In an uncertain market, the best opportunities often come from understanding your position, buying or selling strategically, and looking beyond today's headlines.

 

 

Dan Neylan,

Director